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| Source: Church Growth Modelling 8 July 2015 |
"The Bishop of Monmouth-elect, the Ven. Cherry Vann, said that it would be a 'sad day if all the focus on growth was just about numbers', but that 'we can’t ignore the fact that church congregations, generally speaking, are either stable or declining'." - Twitter @ChurchTimes
The Church in Wales is heading for extinction in around 20 years time along with the Episcopal Church of Scotland and the US Episcopal Church. Fortunately for her and her liberal colleagues she will have retired before the collapse leaving others to sort out the mess the 'progressives' have created.
Decline continues as traditional roles are overturned. Over the last couple of decades, women have been leaving mainstream Christian churches at about twice the rate of men while more women than men are entering clergy training in the Church of England.
Promised benefits of the ordination of women have not just failed to materialise, they have been reversed.
In 1993 when Michael Alison (Second Church Estates Commissioner, representing the Church Commissioners) moved, That the Priests (Ordination of Women) Measure, passed by the General Synod of the Church of England, be presented to Her Majesty for her Royal Assent, he said:
"For those millions of people, the Church of England, with its formal state link, is a kind of valuable stalking horse by which they can bring pressure to bear on the powers that be to promote or to maintain Christian standards in education, complex moral and ethical issues, and so on."
Instead we have bishops who advocate same-sex marriage in Church and appear oblivious to the dangers of confusing children by spreading LGBT propaganda in primary schools in the guise of sex education.
In 2015 the Church Growth Modelling blog forecast that attendance figures for the Church in Wales, the Scottish Episcopal Church and the Episcopal Church of the USA (TEC), indicated extinction dates around 2040. The Church of England was "on the margins of extinction with some calibrations say yes, just; some say no, just."
The liberal leaning Canadian Episcopal Church must be added to the list.
Regular attendance figures from Canada show that the Anglican Church of Canada (ACC) is in serious trouble, "running out of members in little more than two decades if the church continues to decline at its current rate". Statistics for 2017 indicate that average Sunday attendance has dropped to 97,421. The rate of decline is increasing suggesting an extinction date also of 2040 based on 'five different methodologies'. Figures for baptism, confirmation, marriage and funerals show an even faster rate of decline.
There is a common factor. Churches that have adopted liberal programs are in decline while conservative Protestant churches which take a more literal view of the Bible continue to thrive.
On his retirement the Archbishop of Wales reflected that he had supported numerous secular causes, including gay marriage. He has also backed women clergy during his 'leadership'. Commenting on the consecration of the Church in Wales' first female bishop he said: "I think that was pretty important as a matter of justice, as a matter of equality and as a matter of doing what was right".
No theology; pure secularism.
On gay marriage, Dr Morgan had previously called for the church's view on same-sex marriage to change with popular opinion adding "That's quite something, I think, in a church that hasn't always been known for its liberalism."
The Anglican Church is now soaked in liberalism and heading for disaster. Liberals have what they want at the price of extinction.
In Wales, Membership and Finance figures for 2018 show "continued decline in most measures of participation in parish life." Regular Sunday attendance has sunk to 26,110 or 0.8% of the population. The political appointment of Ms Vann to the position of bishop of Monmouth has been welcomed by liberals who no longer see the traditional teaching of the Church as relevant.
In the Church of Ireland clergy have objected to the appointment of a conservative bishop because of his membership of the Global Anglican Future Conference (GAFCON). These clergy believe that GAFCON’s policies "are 'antithetical' to the principles a Church of Ireland bishop must commit to in the rite of consecration. These include 'fostering unity, care for the oppressed, and building up the people of God in all their spiritual and sexual diversity'" showing how far many Anglicans have strayed like lost sheep.
This from Church Times illustrates how absurd the liberal position has become in undermining traditional beliefs: The Dean of Waterford, the Very Revd Maria Jansson, told The Irish Times that "the Bishops’ attendance at GAFCON had undermined unity within the Church. 'How can Bishops Harold Miller and Ferran Glenfield reconcile the vows they made at their consecrations as bishops ‘to maintain and further the unity of the Church’ with their support of GAFCON, which stridently endeavours to undermine that very unity?', she asked."
More to the point, how can liberally progressive bishops reconcile their vows to maintaining the unity of the Church when they represent a small and shrinking percentage of the 87 million Anglicans worldwide?
The Church is in crisis. Only 2% of young adults identify as C of E.
In the Church of Ireland clergy have objected to the appointment of a conservative bishop because of his membership of the Global Anglican Future Conference (GAFCON). These clergy believe that GAFCON’s policies "are 'antithetical' to the principles a Church of Ireland bishop must commit to in the rite of consecration. These include 'fostering unity, care for the oppressed, and building up the people of God in all their spiritual and sexual diversity'" showing how far many Anglicans have strayed like lost sheep.
This from Church Times illustrates how absurd the liberal position has become in undermining traditional beliefs: The Dean of Waterford, the Very Revd Maria Jansson, told The Irish Times that "the Bishops’ attendance at GAFCON had undermined unity within the Church. 'How can Bishops Harold Miller and Ferran Glenfield reconcile the vows they made at their consecrations as bishops ‘to maintain and further the unity of the Church’ with their support of GAFCON, which stridently endeavours to undermine that very unity?', she asked."
More to the point, how can liberally progressive bishops reconcile their vows to maintaining the unity of the Church when they represent a small and shrinking percentage of the 87 million Anglicans worldwide?
The Church is in crisis. Only 2% of young adults identify as C of E.
Interlopers have changed the Anglican Church to satisfy their own desires, driving forward an agenda to validate a lifestyle incompatible with the Gospel.
From Virtue Online: "Progressive Pansexualist 'Christians' have declared war on orthodox believers. Their goal is not mere acceptance, but to overthrow the moral order and destroy conservative churches who hold the line on faith and morals."
What we are left with is not Christianity but Churchianity and it is spreading.
Anglicans often described themselves as “Episcopally led and Synodically governed.” That is fine so long as bishops remain guardians of the faith but many are in the forefront of aggressive change, putting 'progressive' provinces at odds with mainstream Anglicanism.
Now Pope Francis is calling for a 'synodal' Church giving progressive Catholic bishops a similar platform to Anglican bishops for driving forward change with claims of being moved by the Holy Spirit.
Is there no end to this madness?
The madness is clearly predicted to end around 2040.
ReplyDeleteBangor surviving until 2040 is clearly not based on the ages of congregations - 75% are over 70 - or on the number of converts - roughly nil.
DeleteWhy not, like a failing football manager, simply admit that after 100 years, CiW has failed, and quietly walk away.
Surely 2020 is the time to 'call it a day'?
Thank for your insight. The Canadian Episcopal Church would have been added to the graph, but they stopped publishing regular attendance data some time back so I could not do it. Church decline has been around for at least 60 years, but most stopped growing late 1880s when revivals had stopped. Since then conversions have declined sharply, the main cause of church decline. There have been many studies that correlate the rate of decline with the liberalness of the churches. But somehow the churches are largely in denial. You have reminded me I must do an updated graph. Again thank you.
ReplyDeleteWith reference to your comment CGM, in the latest edition of Anglican Unscripted (No 551) the Rev George Conger refers [@ 26 Mins] to a discussion in the previous edition on the "freefall" of attendance of the Anglican Church in Canada.
DeleteHe said that for almost a generation they [the ACC] had not released statistical information. He wondered if perhaps statistics had not been collected. A (Churchwarden?) viewer contacted Conger to say that they turn in every little bit of information, attendance, statistical, financial, but the national Church "chose" to hide this information because if they didn't hide it, then the world would see that the course they have taken is unsustainable.
Conger comments: "It is a fraud. It is bad practice, in essence that the Anglican Church of Canada leadership has coerced the market of ideas and information to prevent the truth from being told. We have that in the Episcopal Church. There are many episcopal churches that are growing greatly, growing in leaps and bounds. None of those churches are ever highlighted by the national church or the evangelism offices or anything like that or ever asked, How are you doing this?"
Conger gives examples of growing episcopal churches before answering his own question: "Because they have an idea and they don't want any facts to disrupt this idea that the progressive agenda is the future.
With reference to the Canadian Anglican church I was just notified of this report: "Church of Canada may disappear by 2040, says new report" https://religionnews.com/2019/11/18/church-of-canada-may-disappear-by-2040-says-new-report/ It gives the 2017 membership figure as 357,123. It was 1.3 million in 1961. That is a 73% drop. The Church of England had a 63% drop over the period. For the church in Wales the drop is 75% and its expected extinction date of the pattern on the last 20 years continues is 2039.
DeleteOh, so many points to comment on; but the chief one I would make is that “correlation does not necessarily equate to cause and effect”. I would venture that the causes of church decline are caused by a wide number of factors, some due to the churches and some to society.
ReplyDeleteFor instance: could one say that the conservative Protestant churches which are growing (and not all are, by the way) are doing so because they have adopted modern music, dropped formal liturgy, are welcoming of people whatever their attire and – despite their more literal beliefs – have in fact taken on board much of the contemporary zeitgeist? And could it be that they are perceived as “exciting”, “enthusiastic” and “alive” in a way which simply isn’t true of St. Agatha’s-on-the-Corner with its elderly congregation, dull sermons and no-longer-New English Hymnals?
Equally, could one say that people aren’t coming to the churches because society is simply becoming more secular – a view strongly espoused by sociologists 20 years ago but much less so today? Or that many people now shy away from organised religion? Or that peoples’ life-patterns have become so complex that church gets squeezed out? Or (and I have to say this) that either local church arguments or the widespread discovery of abuse in churches (and the often poor responses to it) have made people wary of churches? All I’m saying is that the causes of church decline are complex.
However I would like to question your reading of two pieces of evidence which you cite. Firstly, the article you quote which says that more women are leaving the churches than men does not say that this is due to the rise of female clergy. What it does say is that the role of women in society has changed; and that the churches’ traditional expectations of women’s roles have alienated women because they have failed to reflect those changes. Indeed, the article states that many feminists believe that the churches continue to manifest outdated patriarchal values which oppress women; continuing to press for an all-male leadership is hardly going to encourage such women back into the churches!
The “Washington Post” article is more interesting though one must be cautious of extrapolating American religious conclusions to the very different European context – this point was forcefully made by many commentators when I was studying for my M.A. in Sociology & Anthropology of Religion some years ago. However it does make one point which you seem to have overlooked: that “it is the strength of belief, not the specifics of belief, that is the real cause of growth”. The same point has been made by the students of church growth in this country, who have concluded that the theological position of congregations is much less a factor in their growth than their enthusiasm and their commitment. Hence the article quoted can go on to say, “pastors embracing liberal theology are just as likely as conservative pastors to experience church growth, provided they are firm and clear in their religious convictions”.
However it does bring in another factor which seems even more germane: the reluctance of liberal churches to evangelise, to take literally Jesus’ command to “Go and make disciples” and press people for conversion. This is understandable as liberal Christians are, in contrast to their conservative brothers and sisters, likely to regard Christianity as one of many, equally valid, expressions of religion. So: while traditional Anglicans in Britain may evidence a certainty of belief, are they active in evangelism in the way that many Evangelicals are? Possibly not.
The decline is enhanced by the ordination of women and the consequent zeal for rights and LGBT, all these were supposed by the liberals to halt the slide. What they presented as relevance has in fact been the opposite. The Church is no longer special, different, confident, assertive, urgent in its Gospel message, or authoritative.
ReplyDeleteStoppit
Hang on. There's a difference between saying that "certain things" were supposed to halt the slide but didn't; and saying that those things actually made the decline worse. It is possible that things have actually worked the other way round: that the decline has been catastrophic but would have been even worse had it not been for women's ordination etc. I know that some folk have left the church; what we don't know are (a) if other, different people would have left the church had these changes not been implemented; or (b) if some people who have joined the church wouldn't have done so if change hadn't taken place. I'm guessing that many of the posters on this blog say, "I've got friends who've left the church because of all this modern stuff" (I suspect they'd also have left if it had become very Evangelical). However we need to hear the voices of other people, both within and outside the church, to get a complete picture.
DeleteBaptist Trainfan, when the Council of Jerusalem was held to decide the future of gentiles within a Jewish Church, the apostles did not go around gathering information from those "inside and outside the Church". The apostles made the decision, and that was the end of the matter. Every Holy Week, at the Chrism Mass, the bishops remind their congregations that they are the apostles in this day and age. It is surprising how empty the cathedrals are for those services. Go back 25 years, to the time when Bishop Roy Davies was at Llandaff, and you had to arrive early for the Chrism Mass or you wouldn't get a seat. The difference is that the sheep knew his voice and responded to him. These days we now have a bunch of hirelings who care nothing for the sheep. The sheep are now left to wander and roam, and nobody gives a damn.
DeleteI am sure the Bishops pay you a lot of money to defend their cause from outside of the sheepfold; but for those of us who have lived inside the fold long enough, we know that every time the Bench sitters want to change Church doctrine or practice, they make grand claims of how life will be improved by their changes, how the pews will be filled to capacity - just trust their judgement, that's all - and what we discover is that it was all a kite flying exercise. But what else can expect from hirelings?
Seymour
"I am sure the Bishops pay you a lot of money to defend their cause from outside of the sheepfold" - don't be ridiculous. I know no CinW bishops; and my denomination doesn't have them. And please stop harking back to the past; whatever the reasons may be for where we are now (and we can differ on our diagnosis), we must go forward.
DeleteOh dear, I have obviously touched a raw nerve! Firstly, I know that Baptists don't have bishops; I used to be one (Baptist, that is, not bishop) until I saw the light in the darkness. I soon discovered it was an oncoming train in the tunnel!
DeleteSecondly, I am not harking back, I am merely pointing out a fact that anybody in Llandaff Diocese could confirm. Bishop Roy Davies knew his Diocese and knew the ordinary members of the congregation by name. He was interested in the people he met and he cared about them. If you spoke to him today about something, he would remember that conversation in six months time; and would want to know how things had panned out. That is what being a shepherd is all about, and people would gather around their bishop because they knew they mattered to him. We can't say that today. The lot we have got now are all about self-promotion and the finances of their dioceses.
Thirdly, the decline of the Church in Wales is a lot more complex than you think. If people feel that those at the top don't give a toss about the things that matter to them; if they feel that all they are wanted for is their money; if they feel that they have been duped so that the bishops get their way (and by God, have we been duped over the years); if those who wish the Church to remain within orthodox boundaries are simply brushed aside as irrelevant; if the members of the Governing Body will not grow a pair and speak up for the vast majority, rather than pander to the minorities; is it any wonder that the Church in Wales is going down the pan? Twenty years to extinction, in my view, is overly generous.
The reason we are in the state we are in is because people are utterly demoralized, and they have had a guts full of being treated like mugs. The bishops use the wonderful smoke screen of consultation. That makes it look like we are being listened to, when they have no intention of listening, and then His Grace has the nerve to lecture the Governing Body on listening.
If you take the Harries Report, you will find that not one thing suggested by lay people found its way into the Harries Report. The consultation for that was a way of letting people assume that they were being listened to. There was never any intention of listening. Even now, the bishops have cherry-picked the bits of the Harries Report that matter to them, and conveniently forgotten the rest.
Then we had the consultation for same-sex marriage. St David's Diocese voted overwhelmingly against it. I think the figure was 85% against. Bishop Wyn Evans kept faith with his diocese, whatever his personal view was. His successor has done everything to promote LGBT+ issues, even telling her Diocese that it needs to get over itself and move into the 21st Century.
It is easy enough to be reasonable when you don't have to live with what we have to live with. I am sure that there are things that niggle you about your tradition, which we, on this side of the fence, might look at in a more reasonable light. For too long, we have had to live with bishops stomping around like bulls in china shops, showing scant regard for the hurt they are causing. When people are hurt, one of two mechanisms kick into action: fight or flight. Many of our brother and sisters have taken flight, and I suspect more will follow.
Seymour
It's the same at the lower levels too Seymour.
DeleteThe £5,000 Eleri Jones report on Llandaff Cathedral is a prime example
Lots of good ideas from those who provided answers to the questionnaire but all ignored and the entire report consigned to the dustbin in less than a year by the useless archdeaconesse Peggy the Pilate.
A bit like the 2016 referendum - if they ask a question and don't like the answers, they're ignored. The sooner the Church in Wales implodes, the better.
Seymour - Thank you for your honest and detailed reply. Believe me when I say that I didn't just appreciate it, but was moved by it. Bless you.
Delete@ Seymour:
Delete'It is easy enough to be reasonable when you don't have to live with what we have to live with. ... For too long, we have had to live with bishops stomping around like bulls in china shops, showing scant regard for the hurt they are causing.'
Your comment called to my mind a time back in the early 1980s when a couple of Llandaff diocese Anglican priests whom I'd known from university days opted to become Roman Catholics. One of them rather cruelly explained his decision in terms of having concluded that the Church in Wales was what he styled 'the joking church'.
At least some bishops at that time, he averred, were totally clued up on what to do and what to say in a traditionalist Anglo-Catholic context, but put them in a different context and, chamelion-like, they'd say something quite different. There was, as country folk on the Gower once used to say, 'no bottom to them'!
At the time I thought it was an overly harsh judgement, but now I think that he was more percipient than I was. Unfortunately I was never able to debate the matter with him face to face because we had no subsequent contact: I heard that Archbishop Murphy had commanded that they break all their former Anglican associations lest their new-found devotion to the Apostolic See be unsettled!
PP. I notice that the new curate of Manchester Cathedral is is in a civil partnership, which is fully accepted. Perhaps time has become a healer and progress. In the modern diversity in the wider Church. Even The Salvation Army now have a commission on how to move towards greater acceptance and inclusion. That is one Church I never would have thought would move this way. Perhaps it has something to do with removing the discrimination clause from the Equality Act following recent discrimination cases.
ReplyDelete"fully accepted"? Do you mean by those who agree with that lifestyle? Do you mean accepted by those still attending Anglican services? Or do you mean by all Christians? I think not the latter.
DeleteAnd of course, if we acknowledge that being a Christian, one must be baptised in The Name Of The Trinity, then we must also realise that Salvationists are not Christians as they do not baptise. Oops. Get ready for the flack. 😅
ReplyDeletePP. Certainly not "flaking you" Merthyr Organist. On the contrary I have to agree in part. However, TSA are a full member of the World Council of Churches and their criteria is pretty tough.
DeleteTSA are non-sacramental, but, it has not stopped the change to usi g the term "church" in recent years to denote there place of worship and people.
Aside, the have maintained an equality of women in high office for some years too.
Many years ago I was at a big Churches Together in England conference. The keynote speaker on the first night was ++Cantuar, at that time George Carey. His talk focused on the idea that "We've tried doing Christian Unity on the basis of a shared Eucharist, but that hasn't worked. Let's try doing it on the basis of a shared Baptism". Cue much burning of midnight oil not just by Salvationists but by Baptists and Pentecostals who do believers' rather than infant baptism. He just didn't seem to realise that not all Christians do things in the same way - and he should have!
ReplyDeleteReading these statistics reminds me of the opening verse of Compline, from 1 Peter 5:8: “Be sober, be vigilant; because your adversary the devil, as a roaring lion, walketh about seeking whom he may devour, whom resist steadfast in the faith”.
ReplyDeleteSobriety & Vigilance are probably the best counsels and course of action for the leaders of the Anglican churches analyzed above. This contrasts sharply with the campaigning and excessive zeal which characterizes Anglican debate and politics over recent decades.
Anglicanism was always a Broad Church, a ‘house with many mansions’, which accommodated the many rather than the few between the former poles of High & Low. In recent decades the poles, or goalposts, have changed to Progressive & Traditionalist, in all versions of the latter. Sobriety and Vigilance do not preclude change resulting from prayerful consideration, nor can they guarantee reconciliation amongst opposing views. But they do create the context for Mutual Flourishing amongst Anglicans and with other Christians, which the new Anglican Conformity based on secular themes and mantras inhibit.
I was not a fan of George Carey as archbishop, but I can see what he was aiming at in the anecdote that Baptist Trainfan mentioned above. Reaffirming and proclaiming clearly what we all share and hold true will stand Christian churches in better stead rather than constantly recalling to those outside the Church that we are “a house divided against itself”.
If the sacraments are unable to promote unity then I think the creeds could. Muslims seem to derive strength and unity through their common declaration of belief, the Shahadah.
ReplyDeleteIf only our forebears had put their clear understanding of marriage and gender in the creeds maybe we would be able to better refute these novelties although the Bible should be enough.
I think they didn't because why would you say such things that were assumed to be so like 2+2=4? No, using the phrasing of the 39 Articles, gay marriage is 'repugnant to the Word of God.'
Why are the bench so fascinated by introducing that which will bring no net growth, probably the opposite, when the CiW is facing extinction? We néed this like a hole in the head.
It will be an own goal like the pachamama debacle in South America for the Roman Catholic church.
PP. Unfortunately the "Unity Gospel" has been and gone. The divisions partially due to retaining dwindling numbers is a case in poiny.But, surely it should be more about what unites us "Christ Jesus" the current "diversity Gospel" has stalled the train, as other denominations still grapple with the sexuality, equality and modernist changes in other denominations.
ReplyDeleteBut, women on the throne (pun not intended) are now a part of our Church structure, like it, lump it or, deride it. Therefore, we have in my opinion three option:stay and be a good pew sitter, leave for Rome or similar or, be the better Christian in our action by offering positive criticism, voting the right person onto bodies we can and show respect for the office, even though the person (not sex) is divisive in actions.
What also puzzles me is this catastrophic failure in mission (mission areas don't cut it for me) as numbers fall, clergy numbers shrink, existing clergy with unmanageable numbers of Churches and executive appointments being made with colossal salaries.
What have we learnt in the last 10 years? Who is to blame? Can we even apportion blame?
If we look at the Mega Churches (they are not all in the USA or Korea) on our doorstep with congregation above 200+. From my own research we have: 3 in Newport, 4 in Cardiff, 2 in Swansea, I in Wrexham and 1 on Deeside. All sacrament, Biblical and active with a social Gospel.
So it can be done, people can be brought to Christ, so ask ourselves what do we need to do to build a better Church in Wales? Dare we ask these successful mega Churches what the recipe is for such retention of congratulations?
Perhaps +June is right to want a new plant HTB style Church in Cardiff, albeit, she has certainly gone the wrong way about it and has been stung well and truly in the backlash. But, the principle is a way ahead for some.
I have said before, The Anglo Catholic missioners of a bygone ages had a huge flair for mission in very poverty stricken places. Is there not a time for a modern approach to this old time served example of good mission now?
The Church needs pioneers, not copy cats, the uniqueness of CiW needs to be seen, not talked about in past tense.
Monmouth is about to have a new Bishop (yes I know another women, same sex situ etc etc) But, if you listen to the huge thank you being given by parishes and individuals in Manchester Diocese, comments on her style of ministry, pastoral care and the commendations, you will see a picture of a women of some substance. Therefore, perhaps this new shepherd is more than adequate and capable to bring healing and counsel that is very much needed here.
1. I wasn't very keen on George Carey either!
ReplyDelete2. Yes, I'd prefer to build unity around one of the Creeds rather than the Sacraments (which the Baptists, being largely memorialist in theology, more properly call "Ordinances"). Having said that, and as I've posted before, "Old Dissent" is traditionally non-Creedal, so that could pose a problem. What we have is simply our "Declaration of Principle": https://tinyurl.com/scct4gh.
3. "Mega-churches" are certainly 'ticking peoples' boxes' in a way that many others aren't. But are they growing through conversion (i.e. new folk coming in) or simply by attracting Christians who used to worship elsewhere? A bit of both, I suspect.
Baptist Trainfan for bishop!
DeleteJimmy
On mega-churches, it might also be new people who enjoy anonymity. It is much easier to slip into a large congregation, get your "fix", and slip out again with no commitment involved. A small congregation in the South Wales valleys will want to know your genealogy to three times removed, your inside leg measurement and what you are going to have for tea - and that's just starters for ten.
DeleteSeymour
PS. Thank you Baptist Trainfan for your kind sentiments to my post above.
Really- preach the truth, the whole truth. (Whatever you think that is. ). Do not worry about who comes. At the end, you will have been faithful, if you really listened to God about what is true. You cannot change what you do based on demographics.
ReplyDeleteWhile I absolutely agree about preaching the truth, one has to choose how to present and package it for one's audience. St Paul took different approaches when he was evangelising and Greeks (think of his reference to the "unknown God" in the latter context), so that his message "clicked" with his hearers.
ReplyDelete