The only releif is that it won't last long. I was talking to a BBC journalist late last week. Apparently, some rather nasty skeletons are going to come tumbling out of the cupboard before too long (several of which The Golfer has tried to cram in with the ones already there). Let's just say the journalists have been doing their homework and talking to people who had the good sense to escape the s**t show that is the Church in Wales a good while back. The fact that the election had to go several rounds doesn't exactly suggest he enjoys unequivocal support from his episcopal colleagues, does it?
Lots of people still within the diocese would be willing to speak to that journalist. Lots of bodies waiting to be dug up. B&Q will run out of shovels once any story breaks.
+Andrew has been elected as Archbishopof Wales. Dare we draw a breath of relief? We had 3 possible Arcgbishops "elect" in the form of Vann, Legg and Osbourne. Vann, a woman in a relationship which according to the Bible disqualified "her" from being consecrated in the first instance. Legg, whoops sorry, Penberthy, well any woman who rejects taking her husbands name isn't worth consideration.Osbourne, a total Church of England reject foisted on the Church in EWales during Barry's "leadership". What a bench or perhaps Bunch. No wonder membership in the Church in Wales is falling. The best Candidate for the position has only just received the Calling to Purple, haven't you Mr Lomas
According to the BBC website, since 2008 he has held the portfolios for Evangelism and Church growth.
During his 13 years the Church in Wales has shrunk significantly. Fact. All entirely predictable and shame on the Electoral college for rewarding failure rather than success. Not to mention his total lack of insight in accepting the role. Just look at the smug, cheesy grin.
The Holy Ghost couldn't possibly have had any say in the matter.
I calculate that ++ AJ is 56/57 years of age. He may retire at the age of 67 as a Bishop and no later than 70 years of age exactly (unlike priests who can retire at 70 years and 3 months). Therefore, it is highly likely that he will be the last Archbishop of Wales, given his minimum tenure of 11 years.
This assertion may be premised upon the following statistics:
1. No membership figures have been published since 2018. However, we may extrapolate the previous statistics. 2. The attrition rate for Ave. Sun. Attendance (> 18 years) between 2012 and 2018 may be summarised as follows:
Mean Attrition Rate: -3.7% Modal Attrition Rate: -5% Median Attrition Rate: -4%
3.Given that the mean and median concur, we extrapolate (VERY conservatively) the attrition rate to be -4%.
4. Given that the Ave Sun Attendance (>18 years) was 26110 in 2018, extrapolating the above attrition rate to 2021, we arrive at a projected Sunday Attendance of 23100.
5. If we apply the modal attrition rate (probabilistically more likely) we arrive at a projected figure of 22386.
6. We also need to apply the deleterious effects of Covid-19 upon attendance. Whilst the data is anecdotal (and therefore unreliable), there are a significant number of Churches reporting the failure of numerous members returning to Church following full lockdowns.
7. There is significant data to suggest a sociological shift in the nature of being Church. Many young adults prefer virtual Church or an App-Driven Church over belonging to an ecclesial community - this will ensure the continuing haemorrhagic net efflux of church members.
7. Consequently, we may conclude that the CiW is hovering dangerously close to 20000. This will result in a significant loss of income since 2018 thereby hastening the inexorable path to ecclesial collapse.
PP. Excellent analysis CEH. Much of which although based on probability, due to figures of attendance not being adequately assessed and published. If you read the recent parish profiles for the clergy vacancies you can clearly see how once full churches are struggling to maintain themselves. In one recent Monmouth profile the 9+ church group had at least half with only 4 attending services weekly, and 2 with monthly services with congregants less than 10. Mirror this across the Province and the cards are stacked in the negative. But, then we have successes like a Llandaff parish with 54 confirmations of mainly young people. Whatever model for grown that parish is using needs to be packaged and expanded.
But, with +Andy holding the evangelism portfolio, what has he done to move forward absolutely nothing! If you look at the podcast anouncement carefully, look how his fellow bishops avoid the camera, with really seriously faces. This seems to show across the other parts of the group too. It looks like a battle weary forlorn bench, +Gregory and +Cherry look like thunder. Sadly I have to agree with many, God is not in this appointment, you don't greet your appointment looking as smug. Look at the humility, on the appointment of his predecessor. Perhaps the sacred confirmation ceremony will reveal true feelings. I am sure the 3 women, will hold him to account as they did not look pleased at all. I wonder how many vote rounds it took and the discussion battle, we will never know.
I don’t think the three women believe in accountability PP. After all, there’s Jo who has continued as bishop with no consequences (yet) after her tweeting scandal, there’s June who is well known as a bully by many others than just the dean, and there’s Cherry who is in a sexually immoral relationship.
Your figures don't seem to have taken account of the resignation of Rev Maynard in Angle and the defection of a significant number of the Parishioners to his new Church.
It wouldn't take too many more such Parishes resigning en masse to bring forward the grand collapse.
The truth is that as an institution we are past the point of no return. The hard decisions that were clearly foreseeable 20 years ago were not taken. Even now there is no plan or desire to reform. With the bench wanting to devote themselves to wokeism rather than making CiW a lithe, agile missional church the event horizon of our final collapse laps at our feet.
A very, very sad day for CiW with the 14th and last Archbishop being elected yesterday.
Permit me to give a preview of what this archiepiscopate will be like (regardless of how long it lasts) from long years of experience in Bangor and St Davids.
1. Andy Crap is probably the least intelligent, least insightful and least engaging bishop you could ever imagine. In public, he is simply DIRE. He has nothing to say that is either original or inspiring. That is because...
2. He has always been cavalier and self-satisfied, exuding a sense of unrivalled entitlement. As one former archdeacon from St David's diocese once told me, 'I have never met anyone who displays such arrogance with absolutely no qualities that could remotely justify being arrogant.' He believes he has nothing new to learn. From anyone.
3. He is actually not a very nice person. His innate insecurity (which he tries to camouflage with his self-satisfied arrogance) means that he is easily threatened by the gifts of others. Just look at the crowd of numpties he has chosen to surround him in Bangor (Hawkins the Grand Pantomime Dame, Cyanide Sue, Bob the Builder on a Short Leash for fear he might get out of hand, Car Crash Cathy the Part-Time Dean, and now Joffrey Baratheon who was strongly and decisively not recommended for ordination and now occupies the role of de facto Dean and Diocesan Secretary). To say he holds grudges is the understatement of the millennium. As has often been said here, he's the antithesis of trustworthy. Just ask his ex-wife.
4. His capacity for promoting inept and talentless clergy means that all the talent in Bangor Diocese, the very people you would have hoped would make a significant contribution to getting the Church in Wales off the sandbank once the Golfer limped off into retirement, are no longer to be seen. What is telling is that their gifts and insights were spotted East of Offa's Dyke and all moved to significant posts in the Church of England where (from what I can tell) they are thriving and making a significant contribution.
5. He is one factor in the persistent Anglicisation of the Church in Wales and its continued isolation from the language, history and culture of the society it is there to serve. When he arrived in Bangor, it was painful enough listening to his botched mutations. Nothing has really improved. He gets more media appearances where he simply continues to make a fool of himself. But, because he will not tolerate being challenged over his inadequacies, he will not address the deficiencies. It begs the question of how seriously he will be taken in the key areas of Welsh life, in education, the media, regional government, among ecumenical partners etc. I think we know the answer to that.
6. If he is treated with derision in national life, how can he possibly speak for the Church in Wales as a serious player in national life? How can he inspire, equip and encourage those who turn up, Sunday by Sunday, hoping to be nourished by word and sacrament in the parishes and other worshipping communities of the Church in Wales? Most parishioners will simply look at who's navigating the ship and decide it's simply not worth bothering. Do they want to be identified with someone like that?
7. When he was 'elected' (I use the word advisedly) Bishop of Bangor, another archdeacon in St David's apparently told one of the Bangor senior staff at the time 'It's going to be a total disaster: he simply hasn't got what it takes.' I think we can assume that will be the case as he steers an even bigger, more unwieldy ship, with a less than enthusiastic crew, towards an iceberg mid-Atlantic.
This rings all-too-true, OfW. To your excellent analysis, I can only add that he always looks absolutely ridiculous. It's that 'forced to smile even though I don't want to' expression, so beloved of Gordon Brown, that does it.
The next time the Church in Wales trumpets its green credentials, I think it is pertinent to point out the amount of carbon pointlessly added to the environment by dozens of people traipsing to Llandrindod. It may look central on the map but not easily accessible from much of Wales. All for a decision which was already all but inevitable, that the longest serving bishop becomes Archbishop. When was the last time that DIDN'T happen? When I have time, I'll check Crockford's. This appointment could have been done in 5 minutes in an office in Cardiff. PS how would they have managed if covid restrictions were tighter? Cymraes yn Lloegr
Indeed Merthyr Organist, I've trawled through Crockford's. Bartlett was bishop of Swansea & Brecon 1950-1971. During that time, Glyn Simon, consecrated 1953, was Archbishop 1968-1971. John Richards was bishop of St David's 1956-1971 so just missed out on succeeding Glyn Simon. Gwilym Williams, bishop of Bangor from 1957, became Archbishop in 1971. As for Rowan Williams, he became Archbishop in 1999, having being bishop of Monmouth since 1992. His contemporaries in that year were John Cledan Mears (Bangor retired 1992) Roy Thomas Davies (Llandaff retired 1999) Dewi Morris Bridges (S & B retired 1998) John Ivor Rees (St David's retired 1996) Alwyn Rice Jones (St Asaph, retired as Archbishop, creating the vacancy in 1999) So Rowan Williams was the longest serving because of the retirement of all his 1992 contemporaries. Note the stark difference in calibre from recent history. Cymraes yn Lloegr
Further to my recent post. Apparently, the Constitution was changed at September's GB to allow a bishop elect but not consecrated, to take part in Archiepiscopal elections.
What was the rush? Does it have a lot to do with not being able to get rid of the dud in the Llandaff Deanery without an Archbishop to lead the process?
but that was already there the Last Archbishop consecrated Bishop Juno as Senior Bishop Before his Election to Archbishop in order for that election to take place,
Yes hb and MO. But rules changed at the GB so that JL could take part in Archiepiscopal election after Sacred Synod but before consecration. Now a consecration can be arranged by the new ++AB so that S and B can have a shepherd. Coney Beach.
Catholic theology (to which I assume the Church in Wales still subscribes?) has always insisted that you do not actually need an archbishop to consecrate another bishop. The simple reason being that the archbishop doesn't consecrate: the college of bishops collectively consecrates and the archbishop merely presides as a representative of the Province. This is precisely why John Davies presided at the consecration of the Bishop of Llandaff in 2017 before being installed as Archbishop. Archiepiscipacy is not the fourth of a three-fold historic order!
In the same way, when the Sees of York and Canterbury are in vacancy, consecrations are never postponed. The bishops of Durham and London preside and the college of bishops, collectively, consecrate.
So, yes, PP's question is germane. Why the rush, especially as it seems the Bishop of Bangor's election was not the outcome of unanimous support from his fellow bishops?
PP. When JunO was consecrated, +JohnD. Was not AB but senior it was only following the consecration, the AB college took place. Why the rush this time?
The lunatics are running the asylum.
ReplyDeleteLook at the bench - it was either going to be the lunatics or the bishop who hasn’t even been consecrated yet.
DeleteMr. E.
The only releif is that it won't last long. I was talking to a BBC journalist late last week. Apparently, some rather nasty skeletons are going to come tumbling out of the cupboard before too long (several of which The Golfer has tried to cram in with the ones already there). Let's just say the journalists have been doing their homework and talking to people who had the good sense to escape the s**t show that is the Church in Wales a good while back. The fact that the election had to go several rounds doesn't exactly suggest he enjoys unequivocal support from his episcopal colleagues, does it?
ReplyDeleteIs that dirt on Andy?
DeleteAJ
Lots of people still within the diocese would be willing to speak to that journalist. Lots of bodies waiting to be dug up. B&Q will run out of shovels once any story breaks.
DeleteBangoriad.
I hear the name of one of the skeletons is Sion.
DeleteIf Randy Andy Pandy was the least worst of a dreadful choice the Church in Wales is doomed.
ReplyDeleteBusiness as usual.
PP. The Golfer is the puppet master and AB again by default
ReplyDeleteDPN. Notice the masonic hands in the picture
ReplyDelete+Andrew has been elected as Archbishopof Wales. Dare we draw a breath of relief? We had 3 possible Arcgbishops "elect" in the form of Vann, Legg and Osbourne. Vann, a woman in a relationship which according to the Bible disqualified "her" from being consecrated in the first instance. Legg, whoops sorry, Penberthy, well any woman who rejects taking her husbands name isn't worth consideration.Osbourne, a total Church of England reject foisted on the Church in EWales during Barry's "leadership". What a bench or perhaps Bunch. No wonder membership in the Church in Wales is falling. The best Candidate for the position has only just received the Calling to Purple, haven't you Mr Lomas
ReplyDeleteRandy is new Archbishop, I wonder if ex wife is cellebrating
ReplyDeleteAccording to the BBC website, since 2008 he has held the portfolios for Evangelism and Church growth.
ReplyDeleteDuring his 13 years the Church in Wales has shrunk significantly.
Fact.
All entirely predictable and shame on the Electoral college for rewarding failure rather than success.
Not to mention his total lack of insight in accepting the role.
Just look at the smug, cheesy grin.
The Holy Ghost couldn't possibly have had any say in the matter.
I must go and wake Ephesia and tell her the good news.
ReplyDeleteI calculate that ++ AJ is 56/57 years of age. He may retire at the age of 67 as a Bishop and no later than 70 years of age exactly (unlike priests who can retire at 70 years and 3 months). Therefore, it is highly likely that he will be the last Archbishop of Wales, given his minimum tenure of 11 years.
ReplyDeleteThis assertion may be premised upon the following statistics:
1. No membership figures have been published since 2018. However, we may extrapolate the previous statistics.
2. The attrition rate for Ave. Sun. Attendance (> 18 years) between 2012 and 2018 may be summarised as follows:
Mean Attrition Rate: -3.7%
Modal Attrition Rate: -5%
Median Attrition Rate: -4%
3.Given that the mean and median concur, we extrapolate (VERY conservatively) the attrition rate to be -4%.
4. Given that the Ave Sun Attendance (>18 years) was 26110 in 2018, extrapolating the above attrition rate to 2021, we arrive at a projected Sunday Attendance of 23100.
5. If we apply the modal attrition rate (probabilistically more likely) we arrive at a projected figure of 22386.
6. We also need to apply the deleterious effects of Covid-19 upon attendance. Whilst the data is anecdotal (and therefore unreliable), there are a significant number of Churches reporting the failure of numerous members returning to Church following full lockdowns.
7. There is significant data to suggest a sociological shift in the nature of being Church. Many young adults prefer virtual Church or an App-Driven Church over belonging to an ecclesial community - this will ensure the continuing haemorrhagic net efflux of church members.
7. Consequently, we may conclude that the CiW is hovering dangerously close to 20000. This will result in a significant loss of income since 2018 thereby hastening the inexorable path to ecclesial collapse.
CEH
PP. Excellent analysis CEH. Much of which although based on probability, due to figures of attendance not being adequately assessed and published.
DeleteIf you read the recent parish profiles for the clergy vacancies you can clearly see how once full churches are struggling to maintain themselves. In one recent Monmouth profile the 9+ church group had at least half with only 4 attending services weekly, and 2 with monthly services with congregants less than 10. Mirror this across the Province and the cards are stacked in the negative.
But, then we have successes like a Llandaff parish with 54 confirmations of mainly young people. Whatever model for grown that parish is using needs to be packaged and expanded.
But, with +Andy holding the evangelism portfolio, what has he done to move forward absolutely nothing!
If you look at the podcast anouncement carefully, look how his fellow bishops avoid the camera, with really seriously faces. This seems to show across the other parts of the group too.
It looks like a battle weary forlorn bench, +Gregory and +Cherry look like thunder.
Sadly I have to agree with many, God is not in this appointment, you don't greet your appointment looking as smug. Look at the humility, on the appointment of his predecessor. Perhaps the sacred confirmation ceremony will reveal true feelings.
I am sure the 3 women, will hold him to account as they did not look pleased at all. I wonder how many vote rounds it took and the discussion battle, we will never know.
I don’t think the three women believe in accountability PP. After all, there’s Jo who has continued as bishop with no consequences (yet) after her tweeting scandal, there’s June who is well known as a bully by many others than just the dean, and there’s Cherry who is in a sexually immoral relationship.
DeleteAJ
@CEH
DeleteYour figures don't seem to have taken account of the resignation of Rev Maynard in Angle and the defection of a significant number of the Parishioners to his new Church.
It wouldn't take too many more such Parishes resigning en masse to bring forward the grand collapse.
What we do know, PP, is that the election was not unanimous. How could it be? He cannot be trusted and several of those bishops know why.
DeleteIf "several" of the Bishops know, why didn't they tell everyone else. If they did tell everyone else, which fools voted for the moron?
DeleteThe truth is that as an institution we are past the point of no return. The hard decisions that were clearly foreseeable 20 years ago were not taken. Even now there is no plan or desire to reform. With the bench wanting to devote themselves to wokeism rather than making CiW a lithe, agile missional church the event horizon of our final collapse laps at our feet.
ReplyDeleteA very, very sad day for CiW with the 14th and last Archbishop being elected yesterday.
WHAMAB
Permit me to give a preview of what this archiepiscopate will be like (regardless of how long it lasts) from long years of experience in Bangor and St Davids.
ReplyDelete1. Andy Crap is probably the least intelligent, least insightful and least engaging bishop you could ever imagine. In public, he is simply DIRE. He has nothing to say that is either original or inspiring. That is because...
2. He has always been cavalier and self-satisfied, exuding a sense of unrivalled entitlement. As one former archdeacon from St David's diocese once told me, 'I have never met anyone who displays such arrogance with absolutely no qualities that could remotely justify being arrogant.' He believes he has nothing new to learn. From anyone.
3. He is actually not a very nice person. His innate insecurity (which he tries to camouflage with his self-satisfied arrogance) means that he is easily threatened by the gifts of others. Just look at the crowd of numpties he has chosen to surround him in Bangor (Hawkins the Grand Pantomime Dame, Cyanide Sue, Bob the Builder on a Short Leash for fear he might get out of hand, Car Crash Cathy the Part-Time Dean, and now Joffrey Baratheon who was strongly and decisively not recommended for ordination and now occupies the role of de facto Dean and Diocesan Secretary). To say he holds grudges is the understatement of the millennium. As has often been said here, he's the antithesis of trustworthy. Just ask his ex-wife.
4. His capacity for promoting inept and talentless clergy means that all the talent in Bangor Diocese, the very people you would have hoped would make a significant contribution to getting the Church in Wales off the sandbank once the Golfer limped off into retirement, are no longer to be seen. What is telling is that their gifts and insights were spotted East of Offa's Dyke and all moved to significant posts in the Church of England where (from what I can tell) they are thriving and making a significant contribution.
5. He is one factor in the persistent Anglicisation of the Church in Wales and its continued isolation from the language, history and culture of the society it is there to serve. When he arrived in Bangor, it was painful enough listening to his botched mutations. Nothing has really improved. He gets more media appearances where he simply continues to make a fool of himself. But, because he will not tolerate being challenged over his inadequacies, he will not address the deficiencies. It begs the question of how seriously he will be taken in the key areas of Welsh life, in education, the media, regional government, among ecumenical partners etc. I think we know the answer to that.
6. If he is treated with derision in national life, how can he possibly speak for the Church in Wales as a serious player in national life? How can he inspire, equip and encourage those who turn up, Sunday by Sunday, hoping to be nourished by word and sacrament in the parishes and other worshipping communities of the Church in Wales? Most parishioners will simply look at who's navigating the ship and decide it's simply not worth bothering. Do they want to be identified with someone like that?
7. When he was 'elected' (I use the word advisedly) Bishop of Bangor, another archdeacon in St David's apparently told one of the Bangor senior staff at the time 'It's going to be a total disaster: he simply hasn't got what it takes.' I think we can assume that will be the case as he steers an even bigger, more unwieldy ship, with a less than enthusiastic crew, towards an iceberg mid-Atlantic.
Not a fan then ?
DeleteTedric
Part Uncle Bryn, part Nazgul. Heaven help us.
DeleteDrP
Part this, part that, all tw*t.
DeleteInsert vowel to taste/experience.
This rings all-too-true, OfW. To your excellent analysis, I can only add that he always looks absolutely ridiculous. It's that 'forced to smile even though I don't want to' expression, so beloved of Gordon Brown, that does it.
DeleteWe're doomed, doomed...
The next time the Church in Wales trumpets its green credentials, I think it is pertinent to point out the amount of carbon pointlessly added to the environment by dozens of people traipsing to Llandrindod. It may look central on the map but not easily accessible from much of Wales. All for a decision which was already all but inevitable, that the longest serving bishop becomes Archbishop. When was the last time that DIDN'T happen? When I have time, I'll check Crockford's. This appointment could have been done in 5 minutes in an office in Cardiff. PS how would they have managed if covid restrictions were tighter?
ReplyDeleteCymraes yn Lloegr
Glyn Simon got it rather than Dickie Bartlett. I think that was the one and only time.
ReplyDeleteWhat about + Rowan?
DeleteCatnap.
Indeed Merthyr Organist, I've trawled through Crockford's. Bartlett was bishop of Swansea & Brecon 1950-1971. During that time, Glyn Simon, consecrated 1953, was Archbishop 1968-1971. John Richards was bishop of St David's 1956-1971 so just missed out on succeeding Glyn Simon. Gwilym Williams, bishop of Bangor from 1957, became Archbishop in 1971. As for Rowan Williams, he became Archbishop in 1999, having being bishop of Monmouth since 1992. His contemporaries in that year were John Cledan Mears (Bangor retired 1992) Roy Thomas Davies (Llandaff retired 1999) Dewi Morris Bridges (S & B retired 1998) John Ivor Rees (St David's retired 1996) Alwyn Rice Jones (St Asaph, retired as Archbishop, creating the vacancy in 1999)
DeleteSo Rowan Williams was the longest serving because of the retirement of all his 1992 contemporaries. Note the stark difference in calibre from recent history.
Cymraes yn Lloegr
Just a polite correction. I love this! Dr. D.D. Bartlett, D.D, was bishop of St Asaph not of Swansea and Brecon😃
DeleteFurther to my recent post. Apparently, the Constitution was changed at September's GB to allow a bishop elect but not consecrated, to take part in Archiepiscopal elections.
ReplyDeleteHow typical and how unsurprising.
Delete"We continue as we please".
What was the rush?
Does it have a lot to do with not being able to get rid of the dud in the Llandaff Deanery without an Archbishop to lead the process?
It might equally be to do with filling the Archbishop slot before Juno gets the boot.
DeleteIn order to consecrate a new bishop for S and B !
DeleteConey Beach
but that was already there the Last Archbishop consecrated Bishop Juno as Senior Bishop Before his Election to Archbishop in order for that election to take place,
DeleteSorry, that made no sense as all!!
DeleteShall someone else care to explain this obvious ignorance of Holy Orders ?
DeleteYes hb and MO. But rules changed at the GB so that JL could take part in Archiepiscopal election after Sacred Synod but before consecration. Now a consecration can be arranged by the new ++AB so that S and B can have a shepherd. Coney Beach.
DeleteCatholic theology (to which I assume the Church in Wales still subscribes?) has always insisted that you do not actually need an archbishop to consecrate another bishop. The simple reason being that the archbishop doesn't consecrate: the college of bishops collectively consecrates and the archbishop merely presides as a representative of the Province. This is precisely why John Davies presided at the consecration of the Bishop of Llandaff in 2017 before being installed as Archbishop. Archiepiscipacy is not the fourth of a three-fold historic order!
DeleteIn the same way, when the Sees of York and Canterbury are in vacancy, consecrations are never postponed. The bishops of Durham and London preside and the college of bishops, collectively, consecrate.
So, yes, PP's question is germane. Why the rush, especially as it seems the Bishop of Bangor's election was not the outcome of unanimous support from his fellow bishops?
PP. When JunO was consecrated, +JohnD. Was not AB but senior it was only following the consecration, the AB college took place. Why the rush this time?
ReplyDelete